The year is not over yet, but we already have its preliminary results, which we have spoken about, directly or indirectly, more than once in a variety of articles. Now, something else is interesting. Analysts have already expressed their opinion on what awaits us next year. It is interesting not even that Huawei is predictably eliminating from the list of leaders, but who will enter the TOP-3 and TOP-5. We are waiting for a real change of leaders, which may well become not temporary, but permanent. Predictably, there will be many Chinese brands in the ranking, but if we judge so, how many manufacturers do not have Chinese roots now? That’s just it. Well, so what about the leaders next year?
Why Smartphones Are Selling Poorly
At the end of last week, analysts at Digitimes Research reported that after three years of recession (from 2018 to 2020), global smartphone shipments are expected to pick up again. At the same time, it is noted that in 2021 the total number of smartphones sold in the world may increase immediately by 150 million units.
This figure does seem like a lot, but it has one specific reason. The reason that many have already begun to forget lately and gradually either get used to it or vice versa, just stop thinking. I am referring to the fifth generation networks, which are increasingly developing in key markets, including Japan, Western Europe, and the United States.
Over the next five years, as the number of commercial 5G networks increases and coverage expands, the need to replace smartphones will increase. People will move from their old devices that don’t support the new standards to ones that can work on 5G networks.
Digitimes Research predicts that emerging markets will also see strong changes, but there will be demand not only for smartphones operating in 5G networks but also in 4G that we are used to. These markets will also drive global smartphone shipments. They are expected to grow further, reaching 1.5 billion and 1.7 billion in 2023 and 2025, respectively.
Which Smartphones will Buy More Often than Others in 2021
As for the leaders in the world list of smartphone manufacturers, the changes will not be so big. The first place is very predictable after Huawei will come out of Samsung Electronics. Apple will follow the South Korean company.
According to analysts, the fate of the third-place has not been decided at all. Many might think this place is reserved for Xiaomi, but this is not entirely true. Three companies will compete for the remaining place in the TOP-3 at once. Besides Xiaomi, it will be OPPO and VIVO. They will share the places from the third to the fifth.
Analysts give the sixth place to a company that few people have heard of from ordinary users. She will be Transsion from Shenzhen. The secret of its success, according to analysts, is that it will sell entry-level smartphones of several brands in Africa and South Asia, where the market is not yet so saturated and, despite the rather low level of the economy of these regions, there is still a need for communication there. In many ways, it is even higher than in developed markets, because often local residents do not have access to a computer and the only way to access the Internet for them is a smartphone.
Seventh place, if analysts have given the correct forecast, can be called “the collapse of hopes.” It is on him that the leader of the world ranking of the first and second quarters of this year, Huawei, will descend. Well, there’s nothing you can do about it, the company needs to think about how to survive, not about tearing up the ratings.
What will Happen to 5G Smartphones?
Digitimes Research also predicts that global 5G smartphone shipments will reach 200 million units in 2020. They will then increase to 1.22 billion units in 2025. This is quite logical because the technologies of new networks are already sweeping the planet. As a result, as now even the most budget smartphones have 4G, in five years they will all have 5G. It is simply a transition from quantity to quality.
How Many Smartphones are Sold in the World
Compared to 370.3 million units in Q2 2019, total smartphone shipments in Q2 2020 decreased by 20.4% to 294.7 million units. Leaders have not changed much. Samsung and Huawei each gained a 20% market share. At the same time, Apple is in third place with a market share of 13.5%. Samsung smartphones shipped 54.7 million units. This is less than 75.1 million units in the second quarter of 2019 and 60 million units in the first quarter of 2020. Everything is predictable here, and a pandemic has become the catalyst for such a recession.
Huawei delivered 54.8 million units. Compared to 58 million units in Q2 2019, that’s a small change. Interestingly, this manufacturer accounts for 42.6% of the Chinese market.
Apple shipped 38.3 million smartphones in the second quarter of 2020. And in the second quarter of 2019, this figure almost reached 38.5 million. That is, the drop was minimal. Gartner links Apple’s strong performance to an improved business environment in China.